Paderborn U19 2–1 Fortuna Köln U19: Result & Stats

Paderborn U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fortuna Köln U19

S. El-Faouzi 73'

P. Brauckmann 11'

B. Özden 62' (pen)

9/27/2020

U19 Bundesliga · West - 2Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Paderborn U1967%

×Draw18%

Fortuna Köln U1915%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paderborn U19Expected goals in this matchFortuna Köln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.06

Paderborn U19

2.42

Fortuna Köln U19

1.06

Paderborn U19 creates 128% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 28 away

2.34

creates per match

0.79

1.32

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Paderborn U19

2.34

Fortuna Köln U19

0.79

allows per match

Paderborn U19

1.32

Fortuna Köln U19

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Fortuna Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn U19 ↓

Fortuna Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Paderborn U19 or draw

85%

Paderborn U19 or Fortuna Köln U19

82%

Draw or Fortuna Köln U19

33%

Winning margin

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

45%

Fortuna Köln U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

91%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

69%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

43%

Fortuna Köln U19 1+ goals

65%

Fortuna Köln U19 2+ goals

29%

Fortuna Köln U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Fortuna Köln U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn U19 at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

Fortuna Köln U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn U19 attack 2.34 + Fortuna Köln U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.42

Fortuna Köln U19 attack 0.79 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Paderborn U19 scores more

67%

level

18%

Fortuna Köln U19 scores more

15%

Paderborn U19 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

P. Brauckmann

51'

T. Suleiman← M. Peters

57'

K. Dag← D. Yazici

62'

B. ÖzdenPenalty

70'

E. Gehlen← M. Gyameshie

73'

S. El-Faouzi

76'

J. Schmitz← O. Calis

85'

N. Akhar← F. Engelhardt

87'

Y. Öztürk← S. Struck

88'

V. Sevinc← E. Öztürk

89'

M. Sayin← C. Gürek

Paderborn

Fortuna

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: B. Wiesner

57'▲K. Dag←▼D. Yazici

70'▲E. Gehlen←▼M. Gyameshie

87'▲Y. Öztürk←▼S. Struck

89'▲M. Sayin←▼C. Gürek

Paderborn U19 substitutes

DagGehlenÖztürkSayinLaarmannGerdesSchettke

Manager: M. Alkan

51'▲T. Suleiman←▼M. Peters

76'▲J. Schmitz←▼O. Calis

85'▲N. Akhar←▼F. Engelhardt

88'▲V. Sevinc←▼E. Öztürk

Fortuna Köln U19 substitutes

SuleimanSchmitzAkharSevincSchmitzSchürmannWeil

U19 Bundesliga: Paderborn U19 2–1 Fortuna Köln U19

Paderborn U19 beat Fortuna Köln U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 27, 2020.

Goals: P. Brauckmann (11'), B. Özden (62' pen), S. El-Faouzi (73').

The match was played at Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4 in Paderborn.

Paderborn U19 vs Fortuna Köln U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Paderborn U19 2–1 Fortuna Köln U19