Fortuna Köln U19 2–3 Paderborn U19: Result & Stats

Fortuna Köln U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Paderborn U19

F. Sylaj 65'

A. Koljic 5'

P. Selkos 71', 48'

D. Bilogrević 57'

4/2/2018

U19 Bundesliga · West - 17Bezirkssportanlage Chorweiler

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Fortuna Köln U1923%

×Draw19%

Paderborn U1958%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Köln U19Expected goals in this matchPaderborn U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

2.54

Fortuna Köln U19

1.56

Paderborn U19

2.54

Paderborn U19 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 60 away

1.36

creates per match

2.15

2.93

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Fortuna Köln U19

1.36

Paderborn U19

2.15

allows per match

Fortuna Köln U19

2.93

Paderborn U19

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Köln U19+0.00on par

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln U19 ↓

Paderborn U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln U19 or draw

42%

Fortuna Köln U19 or Paderborn U19

81%

Draw or Paderborn U19

77%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln U19 wins by 2+

10%

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln U19 1+ goals

79%

Fortuna Köln U19 2+ goals

46%

Fortuna Köln U19 3+ goals

21%

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

92%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

72%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln U19 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.93 · 28 matches

Paderborn U19 away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln U19 attack 1.36 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.56

Paderborn U19 attack 2.15 + Fortuna Köln U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Fortuna Köln U19 scores more

23%

level

19%

Paderborn U19 scores more

58%

Paderborn U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

48'

57'

58'

62'

M. Dembele← Juan Alvarez

65'

F. Sylaj

71'

P. Selkos

82'

W. Kametas← A. Winkels

82'

C. Niebling← P. Selkos

86'

M. Urban← S. Gucciardo

90'

L. Thorenmeier← G. Kaplan

Fortuna

Paderborn

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Walocha

58'▲F. Sylaj←▼A. Sürü

62'▲M. Dembele←▼Juan Alvarez

82'▲W. Kametas←▼A. Winkels

Fortuna Köln U19 substitutes

SylajDembeleKametasKanuricGörgensKocÖzen

Manager: F. Fulland

82'▲C. Niebling←▼P. Selkos

86'▲M. Urban←▼S. Gucciardo

90'▲L. Thorenmeier←▼G. Kaplan

Paderborn U19 substitutes

NieblingUrbanThorenmeierBürmannSchubertCzokSieben