Paderborn U19 1–2 Alemannia Aachen U19

Paderborn U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Alemannia Aachen U19

L. Ortmann 73'

P. von Matthey 54'

M. Arifi 48'

3/9/2019

U19 Bundesliga · West - 20Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Paderborn U1963%

×Draw18%

Alemannia Aachen U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paderborn U19Expected goals in this matchAlemannia Aachen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.25

Paderborn U19

2.45

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.25

Paderborn U19 creates 96% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 59 away

2.34

creates per match

1.19

1.32

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Paderborn U19

2.34

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.19

allows per match

Paderborn U19

1.32

Alemannia Aachen U19

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn U19 ↓

Alemannia Aachen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Paderborn U19 or draw

82%

Paderborn U19 or Alemannia Aachen U19

82%

Draw or Alemannia Aachen U19

37%

Winning margin

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

42%

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

91%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

70%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

44%

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals

71%

Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals

36%

Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn U19 at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

Alemannia Aachen U19 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.56 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn U19 attack 2.34 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.45

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.19 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Paderborn U19 scores more

63%

level

18%

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more

18%

Paderborn U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

M. Arifi

54'

P. von Matthey

62'

S. Nartikoev← A. Kahraman

64'

T. Okoeguale← F. Sylaj

70'

G. Kaplan← M. Urban

70'

L. Ortmann← P. Beckhoff

73'

L. Ortmann

74'

J. Kyeremateng← M. Muharemovic

80'

D. Tasli← T. Köther

80'

K. Beckschulte← S. Kayan

85'

E. Karaoglu← M. Arifi

Paderborn

Alemannia

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Tumani

62'▲S. Nartikoev←▼A. Kahraman

70'▲G. Kaplan←▼M. Urban

70'▲L. Ortmann←▼P. Beckhoff

74'▲J. Kyeremateng←▼M. Muharemovic

Paderborn U19 substitutes

NartikoevKaplanOrtmannKyerematengParadzikSchunkeBechtel

Manager: C. Mollocher

64'▲T. Okoeguale←▼F. Sylaj

80'▲D. Tasli←▼T. Köther

80'▲K. Beckschulte←▼S. Kayan

85'▲E. Karaoglu←▼M. Arifi

Alemannia Aachen U19 substitutes

OkoegualeTasliBeckschulteKaraogluLufuankedaBrdaricManzenreiter

U19 Bundesliga: Paderborn U19 1–2 Alemannia Aachen U19

Alemannia Aachen U19 beat Paderborn U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 9, 2019.

Goals: M. Arifi (48'), P. von Matthey (54'), L. Ortmann (73').

The match was played at Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4 in Paderborn.

Paderborn U19 vs Alemannia Aachen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Paderborn U19 1–2 Alemannia Aachen U19