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Alemannia Aachen U19 vs Paderborn U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Alemannia Aachen U19
Alemannia Aachen U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Paderborn U19
Paderborn U19
2/17/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 17Sportpark am See

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Alemannia Aachen U1926%
×Draw21%
Paderborn U1953%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alemannia Aachen U19
1.44
Paderborn U19
2.11

Paderborn U19 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 58 away

creates per match

Alemannia Aachen U19
1.09
Paderborn U19
2.12

allows per match

Alemannia Aachen U19
2.10
Paderborn U19
1.78

finishing

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par
Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Aachen U19 ↓

Paderborn U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Alemannia Aachen U19 or draw
47%
Alemannia Aachen U19 or Paderborn U19
79%
Draw or Paderborn U19
74%

Winning margin

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+
12%
Paderborn U19 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals
76%
Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals
42%
Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals
18%
Paderborn U19 1+ goals
88%
Paderborn U19 2+ goals
62%
Paderborn U19 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)
33%
Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Aachen U19 at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.10 · 58 matches

Paderborn U19 away — creates 2.12, concedes 1.78 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.09 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.44

Paderborn U19 attack 2.12 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more
26%
level
21%
Paderborn U19 scores more
53%

Paderborn U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Alemannia Aachen U19 1–0 Paderborn U19

Alemannia Aachen U19 beat Paderborn U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark am See in Eschweiler.