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Paderborn II vs Meinerzhagen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Paderborn II
Paderborn II
CANC
13:00
Meinerzhagen
Meinerzhagen
6/13/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 41Sportpark Breite Bruch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Paderborn II60%
×Draw20%
Meinerzhagen19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paderborn II
2.14
Meinerzhagen
1.12

Paderborn II creates 91% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 20 away

creates per match

Paderborn II
2.08
Meinerzhagen
1.55

allows per match

Paderborn II
0.69
Meinerzhagen
2.20

finishing

Paderborn II+0.00on par
Meinerzhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn II ↓

Meinerzhagen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Paderborn II or draw
81%
Paderborn II or Meinerzhagen
80%
Draw or Meinerzhagen
40%

Winning margin

Paderborn II wins by 2+
37%
Meinerzhagen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Paderborn II 1+ goals
88%
Paderborn II 2+ goals
63%
Paderborn II 3+ goals
36%
Meinerzhagen 1+ goals
67%
Meinerzhagen 2+ goals
31%
Meinerzhagen 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Paderborn II (draw refunded)
76%
Meinerzhagen (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn II at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.69 · 36 matches

Meinerzhagen away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn II attack 2.08 + Meinerzhagen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.14

Meinerzhagen attack 1.55 + Paderborn II defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Paderborn II scores more
60%
level
20%
Meinerzhagen scores more
19%

Paderborn II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Paderborn II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Paderborn II host Meinerzhagen

June 13, 2021: Paderborn II take on Meinerzhagen in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Paderborn II host Meinerzhagen at Sportpark Breite Bruch.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.