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Meinerzhagen vs Paderborn II — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Meinerzhagen
Meinerzhagen
CANC
14:00
Paderborn II
Paderborn II
2/13/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 20Stadion An der Oststraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Meinerzhagen35%
×Draw23%
Paderborn II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meinerzhagen
1.58
Paderborn II
1.76

Paderborn II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 35 away

creates per match

Meinerzhagen
1.78
Paderborn II
2.09

allows per match

Meinerzhagen
1.44
Paderborn II
1.37

finishing

Meinerzhagen+0.00on par
Paderborn II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meinerzhagen ↓

Paderborn II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Meinerzhagen or draw
58%
Meinerzhagen or Paderborn II
77%
Draw or Paderborn II
65%

Winning margin

Meinerzhagen wins by 2+
17%
Paderborn II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Meinerzhagen 1+ goals
79%
Meinerzhagen 2+ goals
47%
Meinerzhagen 3+ goals
21%
Paderborn II 1+ goals
83%
Paderborn II 2+ goals
52%
Paderborn II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Meinerzhagen (draw refunded)
45%
Paderborn II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meinerzhagen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

Paderborn II away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meinerzhagen attack 1.78 + Paderborn II defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.58

Paderborn II attack 2.09 + Meinerzhagen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Meinerzhagen scores more
35%
level
23%
Paderborn II scores more
42%

Paderborn II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Paderborn II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meinerzhagen vs Paderborn II — Match Preview

Meinerzhagen face Paderborn II on February 13, 2021 in this Oberliga - Westfalen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Meinerzhagen host Paderborn II at Stadion An der Oststraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.