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Paderborn II vs Holzwickeder SC — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Paderborn II
Paderborn II
CANC
14:00
Holzwickeder SC
Holzwickeder SC
2/21/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 21Sportpark Breite Bruch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Paderborn II53%
×Draw23%
Holzwickeder SC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paderborn II
1.88
Holzwickeder SC
1.21

Paderborn II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 18 away

creates per match

Paderborn II
2.08
Holzwickeder SC
1.72

allows per match

Paderborn II
0.69
Holzwickeder SC
1.67

finishing

Paderborn II+0.00on par
Holzwickeder SC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn II ↓

Holzwickeder SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Paderborn II or draw
75%
Paderborn II or Holzwickeder SC
77%
Draw or Holzwickeder SC
47%

Winning margin

Paderborn II wins by 2+
30%
Holzwickeder SC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Paderborn II 1+ goals
85%
Paderborn II 2+ goals
56%
Paderborn II 3+ goals
29%
Holzwickeder SC 1+ goals
70%
Holzwickeder SC 2+ goals
34%
Holzwickeder SC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Paderborn II (draw refunded)
68%
Holzwickeder SC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn II at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.69 · 36 matches

Holzwickeder SC away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn II attack 2.08 + Holzwickeder SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.88

Holzwickeder SC attack 1.72 + Paderborn II defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Paderborn II scores more
53%
level
23%
Holzwickeder SC scores more
25%

Paderborn II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Paderborn II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Paderborn II host Holzwickeder SC

February 21, 2021: Paderborn II take on Holzwickeder SC in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Paderborn II host Holzwickeder SC at Sportpark Breite Bruch.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.