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Holzwickeder SC vs Paderborn II — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Holzwickeder SC
Holzwickeder SC
CANC
13:00
Paderborn II
Paderborn II
6/20/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 42Montanhydraulik-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Holzwickeder SC25%
×Draw20%
Paderborn II55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holzwickeder SC
1.47
Paderborn II
2.26

Paderborn II creates 54% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 35 away

creates per match

Holzwickeder SC
1.56
Paderborn II
2.09

allows per match

Holzwickeder SC
2.44
Paderborn II
1.37

finishing

Holzwickeder SC+0.00on par
Paderborn II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holzwickeder SC ↓

Paderborn II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Holzwickeder SC or draw
45%
Holzwickeder SC or Paderborn II
80%
Draw or Paderborn II
75%

Winning margin

Holzwickeder SC wins by 2+
11%
Paderborn II wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Holzwickeder SC 1+ goals
77%
Holzwickeder SC 2+ goals
43%
Holzwickeder SC 3+ goals
18%
Paderborn II 1+ goals
89%
Paderborn II 2+ goals
66%
Paderborn II 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Holzwickeder SC (draw refunded)
31%
Paderborn II (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holzwickeder SC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

Paderborn II away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holzwickeder SC attack 1.56 + Paderborn II defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.47

Paderborn II attack 2.09 + Holzwickeder SC defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Holzwickeder SC scores more
25%
level
20%
Paderborn II scores more
55%

Paderborn II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Paderborn II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Holzwickeder SC host Paderborn II

June 20, 2021: Holzwickeder SC take on Paderborn II in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Holzwickeder SC host Paderborn II at Montanhydraulik-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.