Pacos Ferreira 2–3 Casa Pia: Result & Stats

Pacos Ferreira

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Casa Pia

Adrián Butzke 90+6', 17'

Clayton 74'

Neto 60'

S. Godwin 58'

9/11/2022

Primeira Liga · Round 6Estádio da Capital do Móvel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Pacos Ferreira39%

×Draw27%

Casa Pia35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pacos FerreiraExpected goals in this matchCasa Pia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.23

Pacos Ferreira

1.32

Casa Pia

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 69 away

1.03

creates per match

1.03

1.43

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Pacos Ferreira

1.03

Casa Pia

1.03

allows per match

Pacos Ferreira

1.43

Casa Pia

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Casa Pia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pacos Ferreira ↓

Casa Pia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pacos Ferreira or draw

65%

Pacos Ferreira or Casa Pia

73%

Draw or Casa Pia

61%

Winning margin

Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+

17%

Casa Pia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals

73%

Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals

38%

Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals

15%

Casa Pia 1+ goals

71%

Casa Pia 2+ goals

35%

Casa Pia 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)

53%

Casa Pia (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pacos Ferreira at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

Casa Pia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.61 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.03 + Casa Pia defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.32

Casa Pia attack 1.03 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pacos Ferreira scores more

39%

level

27%

Casa Pia scores more

35%

Pacos Ferreira at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pacos Ferreira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Adrián Butzke

Pacos Ferreira · F

8.5

Match Events

17'

Adrián Butzke↳ Luíz Carlos

44'

Vasco Fernandes

52'

Léo Bolgado

55'

Juan Delgado

58'

S. Godwin↳ Afonso Taira

59'

Neto← Y. Eteki

60'

Neto↳ Leonardo Lelo

65'

Neto

65'

J. Holsgrove← Rui Pires

65'

N. Thomas← Kayky

66'

Nuno Lima

68'

Romário Baró← T. Kunimoto

68'

N. Zolotić← Léo Bolgado

68'

Clayton← Rafael Martins

71'

N. Koffi← Zé Uilton

71'

B. Toma← Luíz Carlos

74'

Clayton↳ Romário Baró

78'

Cuca← Afonso Taira

87'

Mauro Couto← Matchoi Djaló

90'

Clayton

90+6'

Adrián Butzke↳ Antunes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PacosCasa

Overview

58%Possession42%

19Total Shots12

7Corners2

8Fouls17

Shots

19Total Shots12

8On Target5

6Off Target6

5Blocked1

9Inside Box9

10Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

450Total Passes334

388Accurate Passes255

86%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

8Fouls17

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides4