Casa Pia 2–1 Pacos Ferreira: Result & Stats

Casa Pia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Pacos Ferreira

Fernando Varela 76'

Maracás 67' (OG)

Paulo Bernardo 45+4'

3/6/2023

Primeira Liga · Round 23Estádio Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Casa Pia42%

×Draw28%

Pacos Ferreira30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Casa PiaExpected goals in this matchPacos Ferreira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.03

Casa Pia

1.27

Pacos Ferreira

1.03

Casa Pia creates 23% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 67 away

1.01

creates per match

0.90

1.16

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Casa Pia

1.01

Pacos Ferreira

0.90

allows per match

Casa Pia

1.16

Pacos Ferreira

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Casa Pia+0.00on par

Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casa Pia ↓

Pacos Ferreira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Casa Pia or draw

70%

Casa Pia or Pacos Ferreira

72%

Draw or Pacos Ferreira

58%

Winning margin

Casa Pia wins by 2+

19%

Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Casa Pia 1+ goals

72%

Casa Pia 2+ goals

36%

Casa Pia 3+ goals

14%

Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals

64%

Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals

28%

Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Casa Pia (draw refunded)

58%

Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casa Pia at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.16 · 69 matches

Pacos Ferreira away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casa Pia attack 1.01 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.27

Pacos Ferreira attack 0.90 + Casa Pia defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Casa Pia scores more

42%

level

28%

Pacos Ferreira scores more

30%

Casa Pia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Casa Pia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Nuno Lima

Pacos Ferreira · D

7.3

Match Events

34'

Yuki Soma

40'

Nermin Zolotić

45+4'

Paulo Bernardo↳ Adrián Butzke

53'

Felippe Cardoso← Lucas Soares

55'

Paulo Bernardo

64'

Romário Baró← N. Zolotić

64'

Zé Uilton← N. Thomas

64'

Alexandre Guedes← Adrián Butzke

67'

MaracásOwn goal

68'

Jordan Holsgrove

76'

Fernando Varela

78'

Derick Poloni← Y. Soma

78'

João Nunes← Clayton

78'

Diogo Pinto← S. Godwin

79'

Fábio Gomes← Rui Pires

79'

Luíz Carlos← Paulo Bernardo

79'

Hernâni Infande← N. Gaitán

90+4'

Ricardo Batista

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CasaPacos

Overview

40%Possession60%

9Total Shots14

4Corners2

14Fouls21

Shots

9Total Shots14

4On Target2

3Off Target7

2Blocked5

4Inside Box6

5Outside Box8

Passing

40%Possession60%

352Total Passes531

286Accurate Passes444

81%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls21

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2