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Pacos Ferreira vs Aves — Primeira Liga 2018

Pacos Ferreira
Pacos Ferreira
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aves
Aves
9/20/2019Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 6Estádio da Capital do Móvel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pacos Ferreira47%
×Draw26%
Aves27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pacos Ferreira
1.52
Aves
1.10

Pacos Ferreira creates 38% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

Pacos Ferreira
1.03
Aves
0.79

allows per match

Pacos Ferreira
1.41
Aves
2.00

finishing

Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par
Aves+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pacos Ferreira ↓

Aves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pacos Ferreira or draw
73%
Pacos Ferreira or Aves
74%
Draw or Aves
53%

Winning margin

Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+
24%
Aves wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals
78%
Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals
45%
Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals
20%
Aves 1+ goals
67%
Aves 2+ goals
30%
Aves 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)
63%
Aves (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pacos Ferreira at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

Aves away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.03 + Aves defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

Aves attack 0.79 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pacos Ferreira scores more
47%
level
26%
Aves scores more
27%

Pacos Ferreira at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pacos Ferreira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Pacos Ferreira 2–1 Aves

Pacos Ferreira beat Aves 2-1 in Primeira Liga on September 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel in Paços de Ferreira.