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Aves vs Pacos Ferreira — Primeira Liga 2018

Aves
Aves
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Pacos Ferreira
Pacos Ferreira
3/1/2020Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 23Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Aves37%
×Draw27%
Pacos Ferreira36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aves
1.23
Pacos Ferreira
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 68 away

creates per match

Aves
0.94
Pacos Ferreira
0.90

allows per match

Aves
1.51
Pacos Ferreira
1.51

finishing

Aves+0.00on par
Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aves ↓

Pacos Ferreira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Aves or draw
64%
Aves or Pacos Ferreira
73%
Draw or Pacos Ferreira
63%

Winning margin

Aves wins by 2+
16%
Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aves 1+ goals
71%
Aves 2+ goals
35%
Aves 3+ goals
13%
Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals
70%
Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals
34%
Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Aves (draw refunded)
51%
Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aves at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

Pacos Ferreira away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.51 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aves attack 0.94 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.23

Pacos Ferreira attack 0.90 + Aves defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Aves scores more
37%
level
27%
Pacos Ferreira scores more
36%

Aves at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Aves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Aves 1–3 Pacos Ferreira

Pacos Ferreira beat Aves 3-1 in Primeira Liga on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves in Vila das Aves.