Pacos Ferreira 4–3 Academico Viseu: Result & Stats

Pacos Ferreira

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Academico Viseu

1/5/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 17Estádio da Capital do Móvel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Pacos Ferreira42%

×Draw27%

Academico Viseu31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pacos FerreiraExpected goals in this matchAcademico Viseu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.13

Pacos Ferreira

1.36

Academico Viseu

1.13

Pacos Ferreira creates 20% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 133 away

1.35

creates per match

1.16

1.09

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Pacos Ferreira

1.35

Academico Viseu

1.16

allows per match

Pacos Ferreira

1.09

Academico Viseu

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pacos Ferreira ↓

Academico Viseu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pacos Ferreira or draw

69%

Pacos Ferreira or Academico Viseu

73%

Draw or Academico Viseu

58%

Winning margin

Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+

20%

Academico Viseu wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals

74%

Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals

39%

Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals

16%

Academico Viseu 1+ goals

68%

Academico Viseu 2+ goals

31%

Academico Viseu 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)

57%

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pacos Ferreira at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.09 · 68 matches

Academico Viseu away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.38 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.35 + Academico Viseu defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.36

Academico Viseu attack 1.16 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pacos Ferreira scores more

42%

level

27%

Academico Viseu scores more

31%

Pacos Ferreira at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pacos Ferreira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff