Academico Viseu 0–1 Pacos Ferreira: Result & Stats

Academico Viseu

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Pacos Ferreira

5/17/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 34Estádio Municipal do Fontelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Academico Viseu40%

×Draw28%

Pacos Ferreira31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Academico ViseuExpected goals in this matchPacos Ferreira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.05

Academico Viseu

1.23

Pacos Ferreira

1.05

Academico Viseu creates 17% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 69 away

1.27

creates per match

1.00

1.10

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Academico Viseu

1.27

Pacos Ferreira

1.00

allows per match

Academico Viseu

1.10

Pacos Ferreira

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academico Viseu ↓

Pacos Ferreira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Academico Viseu or draw

69%

Academico Viseu or Pacos Ferreira

72%

Draw or Pacos Ferreira

60%

Winning margin

Academico Viseu wins by 2+

18%

Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Academico Viseu 1+ goals

71%

Academico Viseu 2+ goals

35%

Academico Viseu 3+ goals

13%

Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals

65%

Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals

28%

Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)

56%

Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academico Viseu at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

Pacos Ferreira away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academico Viseu attack 1.27 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.00 + Academico Viseu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Academico Viseu scores more

40%

level

28%

Pacos Ferreira scores more

31%

Academico Viseu at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Academico Viseu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff