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Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton — Canadian Premier League 2020

Pacific FC
Pacific FC
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
FC Edmonton
FC Edmonton
10/27/2021Canadian Premier LeagueCanadian Premier League · Round 11Starlight Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Pacific FC50%
×Draw24%
FC Edmonton26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pacific FC
1.68
FC Edmonton
1.13

Pacific FC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 32 away

creates per match

Pacific FC
1.45
FC Edmonton
0.91

allows per match

Pacific FC
1.34
FC Edmonton
1.91

finishing

Pacific FC+0.00on par
FC Edmonton+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pacific FC ↓

FC Edmonton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Pacific FC or draw
74%
Pacific FC or FC Edmonton
76%
Draw or FC Edmonton
50%

Winning margin

Pacific FC wins by 2+
27%
FC Edmonton wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pacific FC 1+ goals
81%
Pacific FC 2+ goals
50%
Pacific FC 3+ goals
24%
FC Edmonton 1+ goals
68%
FC Edmonton 2+ goals
31%
FC Edmonton 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pacific FC (draw refunded)
66%
FC Edmonton (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pacific FC at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 83 matches

FC Edmonton away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pacific FC attack 1.45 + FC Edmonton defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.68

FC Edmonton attack 0.91 + Pacific FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pacific FC scores more
50%
level
24%
FC Edmonton scores more
26%

Pacific FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pacific FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pacific FC vs FC Edmonton

Pacific FC beat FC Edmonton 5-1 in Canadian Premier League on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Starlight Stadium in Victoria, British Columbia.