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FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC — Canadian Premier League 2020

FC Edmonton
FC Edmonton
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Pacific FC
Pacific FC
7/9/2022Canadian Premier LeagueCanadian Premier League · Round 7Clarke Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FC Edmonton40%
×Draw26%
Pacific FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Edmonton
1.41
Pacific FC
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 86 away

creates per match

FC Edmonton
1.32
Pacific FC
1.12

allows per match

FC Edmonton
1.45
Pacific FC
1.50

finishing

FC Edmonton+0.00on par
Pacific FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Edmonton ↓

Pacific FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Edmonton or draw
66%
FC Edmonton or Pacific FC
74%
Draw or Pacific FC
60%

Winning margin

FC Edmonton wins by 2+
19%
Pacific FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Edmonton 1+ goals
76%
FC Edmonton 2+ goals
41%
FC Edmonton 3+ goals
17%
Pacific FC 1+ goals
72%
Pacific FC 2+ goals
37%
Pacific FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Edmonton (draw refunded)
54%
Pacific FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Edmonton at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

Pacific FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.50 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Edmonton attack 1.32 + Pacific FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Pacific FC attack 1.12 + FC Edmonton defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Edmonton scores more
40%
level
26%
Pacific FC scores more
34%

FC Edmonton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Edmonton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC

Pacific FC beat FC Edmonton 3-2 in Canadian Premier League on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at Clarke Field in Edmonton, Alberta.