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Pacatuba vs Guarani De Juazeiro — Cearense - 2 2025

Pacatuba
Pacatuba
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Guarani De Juazeiro
Guarani De Juazeiro
Unknown 90+5', 45+4', 21'
F. Kayro 61'
Italo Pica-Pau 28'
Dudu 22'
3/12/2025Cearense - 2Cearense - 2 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio José Antônio Abilio de Lima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pacatuba40%
×Draw23%
Guarani De Juazeiro38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pacatuba
1.71
Guarani De Juazeiro
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

creates per match

Pacatuba
2.00
Guarani De Juazeiro
1.07

allows per match

Pacatuba
2.25
Guarani De Juazeiro
1.43

finishing

Pacatuba+0.00on par
Guarani De Juazeiro+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pacatuba ↓

Guarani De Juazeiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Pacatuba or draw
62%
Pacatuba or Guarani De Juazeiro
77%
Draw or Guarani De Juazeiro
60%

Winning margin

Pacatuba wins by 2+
20%
Guarani De Juazeiro wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Pacatuba 1+ goals
82%
Pacatuba 2+ goals
51%
Pacatuba 3+ goals
24%
Guarani De Juazeiro 1+ goals
81%
Guarani De Juazeiro 2+ goals
49%
Guarani De Juazeiro 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Pacatuba (draw refunded)
51%
Guarani De Juazeiro (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pacatuba at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Guarani De Juazeiro away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pacatuba attack 2.00 + Guarani De Juazeiro defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.71

Guarani De Juazeiro attack 1.07 + Pacatuba defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pacatuba scores more
40%
level
23%
Guarani De Juazeiro scores more
38%

Pacatuba at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pacatuba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
22'
Dudu
28'
Italo Pica-Pau
37'
45+4'
61'
F. Kayro
90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cearense - 2: Pacatuba 4–2 Guarani De Juazeiro

Pacatuba beat Guarani De Juazeiro 4-2 in Cearense - 2 on March 12, 2025.

Goals: ? (21', 45+4', 90+5'), Dudu (22'), Italo Pica-Pau (28'), F. Kayro (61').

The match was played at Estádio José Antônio Abilio de Lima in Quixadá, Ceará.