Guarani De Juazeiro 0–0 Pacatuba: Result & Stats

Guarani De Juazeiro

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pacatuba

2/16/2025

Cearense - 2 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Mauro Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Guarani De Juazeiro61%

×Draw24%

Pacatuba15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guarani De JuazeiroExpected goals in this matchPacatuba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.67

Guarani De Juazeiro

1.66

Pacatuba

0.67

Guarani De Juazeiro creates 148% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

0.82

creates per match

0.25

1.09

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Guarani De Juazeiro

0.82

Pacatuba

0.25

allows per match

Guarani De Juazeiro

1.09

Pacatuba

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guarani De Juazeiro+0.00on par

Pacatuba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani De Juazeiro ↓

Pacatuba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Guarani De Juazeiro or draw

85%

Guarani De Juazeiro or Pacatuba

76%

Draw or Pacatuba

39%

Winning margin

Guarani De Juazeiro wins by 2+

34%

Pacatuba wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Guarani De Juazeiro 1+ goals

81%

Guarani De Juazeiro 2+ goals

49%

Guarani De Juazeiro 3+ goals

23%

Pacatuba 1+ goals

49%

Pacatuba 2+ goals

15%

Pacatuba 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Guarani De Juazeiro (draw refunded)

81%

Pacatuba (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani De Juazeiro at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Pacatuba away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani De Juazeiro attack 0.82 + Pacatuba defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.66

Pacatuba attack 0.25 + Guarani De Juazeiro defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Guarani De Juazeiro scores more

61%

level

24%

Pacatuba scores more

15%

Guarani De Juazeiro at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Guarani De Juazeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff