Pacajus 3–1 4 de Julho: Result & Stats | Serie D

Pacajus

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

4 de Julho

7/17/2022

Serie D · 1st Phase - 14Estadio Municipal João Ronaldo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Pacajus48%

×Draw30%

4 de Julho22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PacajusExpected goals in this match4 de Julho

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.73

Pacajus

1.22

4 de Julho

0.73

Pacajus creates 67% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

1.44

creates per match

0.58

0.88

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Pacajus

1.44

4 de Julho

0.58

allows per match

Pacajus

0.88

4 de Julho

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pacajus+0.00on par

4 de Julho+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pacajus ↓

4 de Julho →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Pacajus or draw

78%

Pacajus or 4 de Julho

70%

Draw or 4 de Julho

52%

Winning margin

Pacajus wins by 2+

21%

4 de Julho wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Pacajus 1+ goals

70%

Pacajus 2+ goals

34%

Pacajus 3+ goals

12%

4 de Julho 1+ goals

52%

4 de Julho 2+ goals

17%

4 de Julho 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Pacajus (draw refunded)

68%

4 de Julho (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pacajus at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

4 de Julho away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pacajus attack 1.44 + 4 de Julho defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.22

4 de Julho attack 0.58 + Pacajus defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pacajus scores more

48%

level

30%

4 de Julho scores more

22%

Pacajus at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pacajus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff