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4 de Julho vs Pacajus — Serie D 2018

4 de Julho
4 de Julho
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pacajus
Pacajus
4/17/2022Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal de Ytacoatiara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

4 de Julho44%
×Draw27%
Pacajus29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4 de Julho
1.38
Pacajus
1.06

4 de Julho creates 30% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

creates per match

4 de Julho
1.42
Pacajus
1.07

allows per match

4 de Julho
1.05
Pacajus
1.33

finishing

4 de Julho+0.00on par
Pacajus+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

4 de Julho ↓

Pacajus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

4 de Julho or draw
71%
4 de Julho or Pacajus
73%
Draw or Pacajus
56%

Winning margin

4 de Julho wins by 2+
21%
Pacajus wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

4 de Julho 1+ goals
75%
4 de Julho 2+ goals
40%
4 de Julho 3+ goals
16%
Pacajus 1+ goals
65%
Pacajus 2+ goals
29%
Pacajus 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

4 de Julho (draw refunded)
60%
Pacajus (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

4 de Julho at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Pacajus away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

4 de Julho attack 1.42 + Pacajus defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Pacajus attack 1.07 + 4 de Julho defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

4 de Julho scores more
44%
level
27%
Pacajus scores more
29%

4 de Julho at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "4 de Julho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 4 de Julho vs Pacajus

4 de Julho and Pacajus drew 1-1 in Serie D on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Ytacoatiara in Piripiri, Piauí.