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Oyonesa vs Autol — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Oyonesa
Oyonesa
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Autol
Autol
10/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 5Oion Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Oyonesa70%
×Draw18%
Autol11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oyonesa
2.18
Autol
0.73

Oyonesa creates 199% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 34 away

creates per match

Oyonesa
1.62
Autol
0.50

allows per match

Oyonesa
0.96
Autol
2.74

finishing

Oyonesa+0.00on par
Autol+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oyonesa ↓

Autol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Oyonesa or draw
89%
Oyonesa or Autol
82%
Draw or Autol
30%

Winning margin

Oyonesa wins by 2+
46%
Autol wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Oyonesa 1+ goals
89%
Oyonesa 2+ goals
64%
Oyonesa 3+ goals
37%
Autol 1+ goals
52%
Autol 2+ goals
17%
Autol 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Oyonesa (draw refunded)
86%
Autol (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oyonesa at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.96 · 111 matches

Autol away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.74 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oyonesa attack 1.62 + Autol defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.18

Autol attack 0.50 + Oyonesa defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Oyonesa scores more
70%
level
18%
Autol scores more
11%

Oyonesa at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Oyonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oyonesa 4 – 0 Autol

Oyonesa beat Autol 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Oion Arena in Oion.