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Oyonesa vs Alberite — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Oyonesa
Oyonesa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alberite
Alberite
12/15/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 17Oion Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Oyonesa65%
×Draw20%
Alberite15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oyonesa
2.12
Alberite
0.91

Oyonesa creates 133% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 46 away

creates per match

Oyonesa
1.62
Alberite
0.85

allows per match

Oyonesa
0.96
Alberite
2.61

finishing

Oyonesa+0.00on par
Alberite+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oyonesa ↓

Alberite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Oyonesa or draw
85%
Oyonesa or Alberite
80%
Draw or Alberite
35%

Winning margin

Oyonesa wins by 2+
41%
Alberite wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Oyonesa 1+ goals
88%
Oyonesa 2+ goals
62%
Oyonesa 3+ goals
35%
Alberite 1+ goals
60%
Alberite 2+ goals
23%
Alberite 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Oyonesa (draw refunded)
81%
Alberite (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oyonesa at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.96 · 111 matches

Alberite away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oyonesa attack 1.62 + Alberite defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.12

Alberite attack 0.85 + Oyonesa defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Oyonesa scores more
65%
level
20%
Alberite scores more
15%

Oyonesa at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Oyonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oyonesa vs Alberite

Oyonesa beat Alberite 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on December 15, 2019.

The match was played at Oion Arena in Oion.