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Alberite vs Oyonesa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Alberite
Alberite
CANC
22:00
Oyonesa
Oyonesa
5/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 36Estadio Marino Sáenz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Alberite26%
×Draw24%
Oyonesa50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alberite
1.17
Oyonesa
1.70

Oyonesa creates 45% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 109 away

creates per match

Alberite
1.15
Oyonesa
1.33

allows per match

Alberite
2.07
Oyonesa
1.20

finishing

Alberite+0.00on par
Oyonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alberite ↓

Oyonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Alberite or draw
50%
Alberite or Oyonesa
76%
Draw or Oyonesa
74%

Winning margin

Alberite wins by 2+
10%
Oyonesa wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Alberite 1+ goals
69%
Alberite 2+ goals
33%
Alberite 3+ goals
11%
Oyonesa 1+ goals
82%
Oyonesa 2+ goals
51%
Oyonesa 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Alberite (draw refunded)
35%
Oyonesa (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alberite at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.07 · 46 matches

Oyonesa away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alberite attack 1.15 + Oyonesa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Oyonesa attack 1.33 + Alberite defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Alberite scores more
26%
level
24%
Oyonesa scores more
50%

Oyonesa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oyonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alberite face Oyonesa (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 returns with Alberite hosting Oyonesa. Match starts May 2, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Alberite host Oyonesa at Estadio Marino Sáenz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.