Oyem AC 2–1 Mangasport: Result & Stats

Oyem AC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Mangasport

3/28/2026

Championnat D1 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Oyem AC25%

×Draw29%

Mangasport46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oyem ACExpected goals in this matchMangasport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.26

Oyem AC

0.85

Mangasport

1.26

Mangasport creates 48% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 31 away

1.23

creates per match

1.52

1.00

allows per match

0.48

creates per match

Oyem AC

1.23

Mangasport

1.52

allows per match

Oyem AC

1.00

Mangasport

0.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oyem AC+0.00on par

Mangasport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oyem AC ↓

Mangasport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–115%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Oyem AC or draw

54%

Oyem AC or Mangasport

71%

Draw or Mangasport

75%

Winning margin

Oyem AC wins by 2+

8%

Mangasport wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Oyem AC 1+ goals

57%

Oyem AC 2+ goals

21%

Oyem AC 3+ goals

5%

Mangasport 1+ goals

72%

Mangasport 2+ goals

36%

Mangasport 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Oyem AC (draw refunded)

35%

Mangasport (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oyem AC at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Mangasport away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oyem AC attack 1.23 + Mangasport defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.85

Mangasport attack 1.52 + Oyem AC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oyem AC scores more

25%

level

29%

Mangasport scores more

46%

Mangasport at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mangasport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff