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Oxin Alborz vs Navad Urmia — Azadegan League 2018

Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
FT
0 – 0
Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
11/4/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 11Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Oxin Alborz48%
×Draw31%
Navad Urmia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxin Alborz
1.15
Navad Urmia
0.64

Oxin Alborz creates 80% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 62 away

creates per match

Oxin Alborz
1.19
Navad Urmia
0.39

allows per match

Oxin Alborz
0.88
Navad Urmia
1.10

finishing

Oxin Alborz+0.00on par
Navad Urmia+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxin Alborz ↓

Navad Urmia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Oxin Alborz or draw
79%
Oxin Alborz or Navad Urmia
69%
Draw or Navad Urmia
52%

Winning margin

Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
21%
Navad Urmia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
68%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
32%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
11%
Navad Urmia 1+ goals
47%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
14%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
70%
Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxin Alborz at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

Navad Urmia away — creates 0.39, concedes 1.10 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxin Alborz attack 1.19 + Navad Urmia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Navad Urmia attack 0.39 + Oxin Alborz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Oxin Alborz scores more
48%
level
31%
Navad Urmia scores more
21%

Oxin Alborz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oxin Alborz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Oxin Alborz 0–0 Navad Urmia

Oxin Alborz and Navad Urmia drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on November 4, 2019.

The match was played at Enghelab Stadium in Karadj.