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Navad Urmia vs Oxin Alborz — Azadegan League 2018

Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
FT
0 – 0
Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
11/29/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 2Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Navad Urmia45%
×Draw30%
Oxin Alborz25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navad Urmia
1.20
Oxin Alborz
0.80

Navad Urmia creates 50% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 49 away

creates per match

Navad Urmia
0.82
Oxin Alborz
0.73

allows per match

Navad Urmia
0.88
Oxin Alborz
1.57

finishing

Navad Urmia+0.00on par
Oxin Alborz+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navad Urmia ↓

Oxin Alborz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Navad Urmia or draw
75%
Navad Urmia or Oxin Alborz
70%
Draw or Oxin Alborz
55%

Winning margin

Navad Urmia wins by 2+
20%
Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Navad Urmia 1+ goals
70%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
34%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
12%
Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
55%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
19%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
65%
Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navad Urmia at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.88 · 65 matches

Oxin Alborz away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navad Urmia attack 0.82 + Oxin Alborz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.20

Oxin Alborz attack 0.73 + Navad Urmia defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Navad Urmia scores more
45%
level
30%
Oxin Alborz scores more
25%

Navad Urmia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Navad Urmia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Navad Urmia vs Oxin Alborz

Navad Urmia and Oxin Alborz drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Teheran.