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Oxin Alborz vs Mes Kerman — Azadegan League 2018

Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
FT
1 – 1
Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
10/11/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 8Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Oxin Alborz36%
×Draw33%
Mes Kerman31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxin Alborz
0.93
Mes Kerman
0.83

Oxin Alborz creates 12% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 116 away

creates per match

Oxin Alborz
1.18
Mes Kerman
0.78

allows per match

Oxin Alborz
0.88
Mes Kerman
0.69

finishing

Oxin Alborz+0.00on par
Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxin Alborz ↓

Mes Kerman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Oxin Alborz or draw
69%
Oxin Alborz or Mes Kerman
67%
Draw or Mes Kerman
64%

Winning margin

Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
13%
Mes Kerman wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
61%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
24%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
7%
Mes Kerman 1+ goals
56%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
20%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
54%
Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxin Alborz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.88 · 49 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.69 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxin Alborz attack 1.18 + Mes Kerman defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.93

Mes Kerman attack 0.78 + Oxin Alborz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Oxin Alborz scores more
36%
level
33%
Mes Kerman scores more
31%

Oxin Alborz at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Oxin Alborz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Oxin Alborz 1–1 Mes Kerman

Oxin Alborz and Mes Kerman drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on October 11, 2019.

The match was played at Enghelab Stadium in Karadj.