Mes Kerman 2–0 Oxin Alborz: Result & Stats

Mes Kerman

FT

2 – 0

Oxin Alborz

2/23/2020

Azadegan League · Round 25Shahid Bahonar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Mes Kerman54%

×Draw29%

Oxin Alborz18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mes KermanExpected goals in this matchOxin Alborz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.63

Mes Kerman

1.33

Oxin Alborz

0.63

Mes Kerman creates 111% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 49 away

1.10

creates per match

0.73

0.53

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Mes Kerman

1.10

Oxin Alborz

0.73

allows per match

Mes Kerman

0.53

Oxin Alborz

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Oxin Alborz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Oxin Alborz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw

82%

Mes Kerman or Oxin Alborz

71%

Draw or Oxin Alborz

46%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+

26%

Oxin Alborz wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals

74%

Mes Kerman 2+ goals

38%

Mes Kerman 3+ goals

15%

Oxin Alborz 1+ goals

47%

Oxin Alborz 2+ goals

13%

Oxin Alborz 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)

75%

Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.53 · 115 matches

Oxin Alborz away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.10 + Oxin Alborz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Oxin Alborz attack 0.73 + Mes Kerman defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mes Kerman scores more

54%

level

29%

Oxin Alborz scores more

18%

Mes Kerman at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff