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Oxin Alborz vs Malavan — Azadegan League 2018

Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
FT
1 – 1
Malavan
Malavan
2/15/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 24Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Oxin Alborz43%
×Draw31%
Malavan26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxin Alborz
1.14
Malavan
0.82

Oxin Alborz creates 39% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 66 away

creates per match

Oxin Alborz
1.18
Malavan
0.76

allows per match

Oxin Alborz
0.88
Malavan
1.09

finishing

Oxin Alborz+0.00on par
Malavan+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxin Alborz ↓

Malavan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Oxin Alborz or draw
74%
Oxin Alborz or Malavan
69%
Draw or Malavan
57%

Winning margin

Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
18%
Malavan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
68%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
32%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
11%
Malavan 1+ goals
56%
Malavan 2+ goals
20%
Malavan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
62%
Malavan (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxin Alborz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.88 · 49 matches

Malavan away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxin Alborz attack 1.18 + Malavan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Malavan attack 0.76 + Oxin Alborz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Oxin Alborz scores more
43%
level
31%
Malavan scores more
26%

Oxin Alborz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Oxin Alborz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oxin Alborz vs Malavan

Oxin Alborz and Malavan drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on February 15, 2020.

The match was played at Enghelab Stadium in Karadj.