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Malavan vs Oxin Alborz — Azadegan League 2018

Malavan
Malavan
FT
2 – 1
Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
1/4/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 8Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Malavan54%
×Draw28%
Oxin Alborz18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malavan
1.39
Oxin Alborz
0.68

Malavan creates 104% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 49 away

creates per match

Malavan
1.21
Oxin Alborz
0.73

allows per match

Malavan
0.62
Oxin Alborz
1.57

finishing

Malavan+0.00on par
Oxin Alborz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malavan ↓

Oxin Alborz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Malavan or draw
82%
Malavan or Oxin Alborz
72%
Draw or Oxin Alborz
46%

Winning margin

Malavan wins by 2+
27%
Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Malavan 1+ goals
75%
Malavan 2+ goals
40%
Malavan 3+ goals
16%
Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
49%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
15%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Malavan (draw refunded)
75%
Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malavan at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.62 · 66 matches

Oxin Alborz away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malavan attack 1.21 + Oxin Alborz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Oxin Alborz attack 0.73 + Malavan defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Malavan scores more
54%
level
28%
Oxin Alborz scores more
18%

Malavan at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Malavan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Malavan 2–1 Oxin Alborz

Malavan beat Oxin Alborz 2-1 in Azadegan League on January 4, 2021.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Bandar-e-Anzalī.