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Oxin Alborz vs Khooneh Be Khooneh — Azadegan League 2018

Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
FT
1 – 0
Khooneh Be Khooneh
Khooneh Be Khooneh
11/11/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 12Enghelab Stadium (Karaj (Karadj))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Oxin Alborz49%
×Draw30%
Khooneh Be Khooneh20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxin Alborz
1.21
Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.66

Oxin Alborz creates 83% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 16 away

creates per match

Oxin Alborz
1.18
Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.44

allows per match

Oxin Alborz
0.88
Khooneh Be Khooneh
1.25

finishing

Oxin Alborz+0.00on par
Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxin Alborz ↓

Khooneh Be Khooneh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Oxin Alborz or draw
80%
Oxin Alborz or Khooneh Be Khooneh
70%
Draw or Khooneh Be Khooneh
51%

Winning margin

Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
22%
Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
70%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
34%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
12%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals
48%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals
14%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
71%
Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxin Alborz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.88 · 49 matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxin Alborz attack 1.18 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 0.44 + Oxin Alborz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Oxin Alborz scores more
49%
level
30%
Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more
20%

Oxin Alborz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Oxin Alborz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Oxin Alborz 1–0 Khooneh Be Khooneh

Oxin Alborz beat Khooneh Be Khooneh 1-0 in Azadegan League on November 11, 2018.

The match was played at Enghelab Stadium (Karaj (Karadj)).