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Khooneh Be Khooneh vs Oxin Alborz — Azadegan League 2018

Khooneh Be Khooneh
Khooneh Be Khooneh
FT
1 – 1
Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
3/29/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 29Shohada Stadium (Babol)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh50%
×Draw29%
Oxin Alborz21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khooneh Be Khooneh
1.29
Oxin Alborz
0.73

Khooneh Be Khooneh creates 77% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 49 away

creates per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh
1.00
Oxin Alborz
0.73

allows per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.73
Oxin Alborz
1.57

finishing

Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par
Oxin Alborz+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooneh Be Khooneh ↓

Oxin Alborz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Khooneh Be Khooneh or draw
79%
Khooneh Be Khooneh or Oxin Alborz
71%
Draw or Oxin Alborz
50%

Winning margin

Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+
23%
Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals
72%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals
37%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals
14%
Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
52%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
17%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)
70%
Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooneh Be Khooneh at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Oxin Alborz away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 1.00 + Oxin Alborz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Oxin Alborz attack 0.73 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more
50%
level
29%
Oxin Alborz scores more
21%

Khooneh Be Khooneh at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Khooneh Be Khooneh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Khooneh Be Khooneh 1–1 Oxin Alborz

Khooneh Be Khooneh and Oxin Alborz drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on March 29, 2019.

The match was played at Shohada Stadium (Babol).