Oxin Alborz 3–0 Damash Gilanian: Result & Stats

Oxin Alborz

FT

3 – 0

Damash Gilanian

9/21/2019

Azadegan League · Round 6Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Oxin Alborz54%

×Draw27%

Damash Gilanian18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxin AlborzExpected goals in this matchDamash Gilanian

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.69

Oxin Alborz

1.41

Damash Gilanian

0.69

Oxin Alborz creates 104% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 64 away

1.19

creates per match

0.50

0.88

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Oxin Alborz

1.19

Damash Gilanian

0.50

allows per match

Oxin Alborz

0.88

Damash Gilanian

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxin Alborz+0.00on par

Damash Gilanian+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxin Alborz ↓

Damash Gilanian →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Oxin Alborz or draw

82%

Oxin Alborz or Damash Gilanian

73%

Draw or Damash Gilanian

46%

Winning margin

Oxin Alborz wins by 2+

27%

Damash Gilanian wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Oxin Alborz 1+ goals

76%

Oxin Alborz 2+ goals

41%

Oxin Alborz 3+ goals

17%

Damash Gilanian 1+ goals

50%

Damash Gilanian 2+ goals

15%

Damash Gilanian 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)

75%

Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxin Alborz at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

Damash Gilanian away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.63 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxin Alborz attack 1.19 + Damash Gilanian defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.41

Damash Gilanian attack 0.50 + Oxin Alborz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Oxin Alborz scores more

54%

level

27%

Damash Gilanian scores more

18%

Oxin Alborz at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Oxin Alborz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff