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Damash Gilanian vs Oxin Alborz — Azadegan League 2018

Damash Gilanian
Damash Gilanian
FT
2 – 1
Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
2/8/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 23Sardar Jangal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Damash Gilanian46%
×Draw29%
Oxin Alborz24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Damash Gilanian
1.24
Oxin Alborz
0.81

Damash Gilanian creates 53% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 49 away

creates per match

Damash Gilanian
0.91
Oxin Alborz
0.73

allows per match

Damash Gilanian
0.90
Oxin Alborz
1.57

finishing

Damash Gilanian+0.00on par
Oxin Alborz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damash Gilanian ↓

Oxin Alborz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Damash Gilanian or draw
76%
Damash Gilanian or Oxin Alborz
71%
Draw or Oxin Alborz
54%

Winning margin

Damash Gilanian wins by 2+
21%
Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Damash Gilanian 1+ goals
71%
Damash Gilanian 2+ goals
35%
Damash Gilanian 3+ goals
13%
Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
56%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
19%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)
66%
Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damash Gilanian at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.90 · 69 matches

Oxin Alborz away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damash Gilanian attack 0.91 + Oxin Alborz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.24

Oxin Alborz attack 0.73 + Damash Gilanian defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Damash Gilanian scores more
46%
level
29%
Oxin Alborz scores more
24%

Damash Gilanian at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Damash Gilanian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Damash Gilanian 2–1 Oxin Alborz

Damash Gilanian beat Oxin Alborz 2-1 in Azadegan League on February 8, 2020.

The match was played at Sardar Jangal Stadium in Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht.