Oxin Alborz 1–1 Chooka Talesh: Result & Stats

Oxin Alborz

FT

1 – 1

Chooka Talesh

4/19/2021

Azadegan League · Round 21Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Oxin Alborz54%

×Draw27%

Chooka Talesh19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxin AlborzExpected goals in this matchChooka Talesh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.74

Oxin Alborz

1.46

Chooka Talesh

0.74

Oxin Alborz creates 97% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 33 away

1.18

creates per match

0.61

0.88

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Oxin Alborz

1.18

Chooka Talesh

0.61

allows per match

Oxin Alborz

0.88

Chooka Talesh

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxin Alborz+0.00on par

Chooka Talesh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxin Alborz ↓

Chooka Talesh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Oxin Alborz or draw

81%

Oxin Alborz or Chooka Talesh

73%

Draw or Chooka Talesh

46%

Winning margin

Oxin Alborz wins by 2+

28%

Chooka Talesh wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Oxin Alborz 1+ goals

77%

Oxin Alborz 2+ goals

43%

Oxin Alborz 3+ goals

18%

Chooka Talesh 1+ goals

52%

Chooka Talesh 2+ goals

17%

Chooka Talesh 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)

74%

Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxin Alborz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.88 · 49 matches

Chooka Talesh away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxin Alborz attack 1.18 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Chooka Talesh attack 0.61 + Oxin Alborz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Oxin Alborz scores more

54%

level

27%

Chooka Talesh scores more

19%

Oxin Alborz at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Oxin Alborz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff