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Chooka Talesh vs Oxin Alborz — Azadegan League 2018

Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
FT
1 – 0
Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
12/10/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 4Sardar Jangal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chooka Talesh45%
×Draw27%
Oxin Alborz28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chooka Talesh
1.36
Oxin Alborz
1.00

Chooka Talesh creates 36% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 49 away

creates per match

Chooka Talesh
1.15
Oxin Alborz
0.73

allows per match

Chooka Talesh
1.27
Oxin Alborz
1.57

finishing

Chooka Talesh+0.00on par
Oxin Alborz+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chooka Talesh ↓

Oxin Alborz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chooka Talesh or draw
72%
Chooka Talesh or Oxin Alborz
73%
Draw or Oxin Alborz
55%

Winning margin

Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
21%
Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
74%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
39%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
16%
Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
63%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
26%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
62%
Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chooka Talesh at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Oxin Alborz away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chooka Talesh attack 1.15 + Oxin Alborz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

Oxin Alborz attack 0.73 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chooka Talesh scores more
45%
level
27%
Oxin Alborz scores more
28%

Chooka Talesh at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chooka Talesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Chooka Talesh 1–0 Oxin Alborz

Chooka Talesh beat Oxin Alborz 1-0 in Azadegan League on December 10, 2020.

The match was played at Sardar Jangal Stadium in Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht.