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Oxin Alborz vs Arman Gohar — Azadegan League 2018

Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
FT
3 – 0
Arman Gohar
Arman Gohar
1/7/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 18Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Oxin Alborz46%
×Draw28%
Arman Gohar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxin Alborz
1.31
Arman Gohar
0.89

Oxin Alborz creates 47% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 68 away

creates per match

Oxin Alborz
1.19
Arman Gohar
0.90

allows per match

Oxin Alborz
0.88
Arman Gohar
1.44

finishing

Oxin Alborz+0.00on par
Arman Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxin Alborz ↓

Arman Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Oxin Alborz or draw
75%
Oxin Alborz or Arman Gohar
72%
Draw or Arman Gohar
54%

Winning margin

Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
22%
Arman Gohar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
73%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
38%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
14%
Arman Gohar 1+ goals
59%
Arman Gohar 2+ goals
22%
Arman Gohar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
65%
Arman Gohar (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxin Alborz at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

Arman Gohar away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxin Alborz attack 1.19 + Arman Gohar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

Arman Gohar attack 0.90 + Oxin Alborz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oxin Alborz scores more
46%
level
28%
Arman Gohar scores more
25%

Oxin Alborz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oxin Alborz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Oxin Alborz 3–0 Arman Gohar

Oxin Alborz beat Arman Gohar 3-0 in Azadegan League on January 7, 2020.

The match was played at Enghelab Stadium in Karadj.