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Arman Gohar vs Oxin Alborz — Azadegan League 2018

Arman Gohar
Arman Gohar
FT
3 – 1
Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
2/1/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 12Imam Ali Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Arman Gohar55%
×Draw25%
Oxin Alborz19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arman Gohar
1.56
Oxin Alborz
0.80

Arman Gohar creates 95% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 49 away

creates per match

Arman Gohar
1.54
Oxin Alborz
0.73

allows per match

Arman Gohar
0.88
Oxin Alborz
1.57

finishing

Arman Gohar+0.00on par
Oxin Alborz+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arman Gohar ↓

Oxin Alborz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arman Gohar or draw
81%
Arman Gohar or Oxin Alborz
75%
Draw or Oxin Alborz
45%

Winning margin

Arman Gohar wins by 2+
29%
Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Arman Gohar 1+ goals
79%
Arman Gohar 2+ goals
46%
Arman Gohar 3+ goals
21%
Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
55%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
19%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Arman Gohar (draw refunded)
74%
Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arman Gohar at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.88 · 67 matches

Oxin Alborz away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arman Gohar attack 1.54 + Oxin Alborz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Oxin Alborz attack 0.73 + Arman Gohar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Arman Gohar scores more
55%
level
25%
Oxin Alborz scores more
19%

Arman Gohar at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Arman Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arman Gohar vs Oxin Alborz

Arman Gohar beat Oxin Alborz 3-1 in Azadegan League on February 1, 2021.

The match was played at Imam Ali Stadium in Sirjan.