Oxford United 2–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

West Brom

W. Lankshear 26'

S. Mills 14'

O. Bostock 33'

2/28/2026

Championship · Round 35Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Oxford United44%

×Draw27%

West Brom29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.04

Oxford United

1.36

West Brom

1.04

Oxford United creates 31% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 23 away

1.64

creates per match

1.25

0.83

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Oxford United

1.64

West Brom

1.25

allows per match

Oxford United

0.83

West Brom

1.09

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Oxford United-0.31scores less

West Brom-0.34scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

71%

Oxford United or West Brom

73%

Draw or West Brom

56%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

21%

West Brom wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

74%

Oxford United 2+ goals

39%

Oxford United 3+ goals

16%

West Brom 1+ goals

65%

West Brom 2+ goals

28%

West Brom 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

61%

West Brom (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.83 · 9 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.64 + West Brom defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.36

West Brom attack 1.25 + Oxford United defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oxford United scores more

44%

level

27%

West Brom scores more

29%

Oxford United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

S. Mills

Oxford United · M

7.9

Match Events

14'

S. Mills↳ J. Donley

22'

O. Bostock← M. Johnston

26'

W. Lankshear↳ C. Brannagan

33'

O. Bostock↳ K. Bielik

36'

Jed Wallace

63'

H. ter Avest← S. Mills

63'

N. Prelec← W. Lankshear

63'

A. Emakhu← M. Peart-Harris

64'

D. Dike← J. Maja

64'

J. Jimoh-Aloba← I. Price

74'

W. Vaulks← Y. E. Konak

75'

D. Imray← G. Campbell

75'

A. Heggebo← J. Wallace

85'

M. Harris← J. Donley

90+6'

Krystian Bielik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordWest

Overview

31%Possession69%

9Total Shots16

0.78Expected Goals (xG)1.25

5Corners6

10Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots16

3On Target3

3Off Target5

3Blocked8

4Inside Box8

5Outside Box8

Passing

31%Possession69%

247Total Passes551

138Accurate Passes448

56%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-0.51Goals Prevented-0.51

Discipline

10Fouls16

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1