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Oxford United vs West Brom — Championship 2025

Oxford United
Oxford United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
West Brom
West Brom
D. Scarlett 90+2'
K. Ahearne-Grant 29'
10/19/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 10The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Oxford United40%
×Draw28%
West Brom32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford United
1.24
West Brom
1.07

Oxford United creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 31 away

creates per match

Oxford United
1.32
West Brom
1.14

allows per match

Oxford United
1.00
West Brom
1.16

finishing

Oxford United+0.01on par
West Brom-0.24scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw
68%
Oxford United or West Brom
72%
Draw or West Brom
60%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+
18%
West Brom wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals
71%
Oxford United 2+ goals
35%
Oxford United 3+ goals
13%
West Brom 1+ goals
66%
West Brom 2+ goals
29%
West Brom 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)
56%
West Brom (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.32 + West Brom defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.24

West Brom attack 1.14 + Oxford United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oxford United scores more
40%
level
28%
West Brom scores more
32%

Oxford United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
K. Ahearne-GrantWest BromWest Brom · M
8.2

Match Events

29'
K. Ahearne-Grant↳ U. Račić
63'
Benjamin Nelson
64'
D. Scarlett← M. Harris
64'
L. Sibley← Ruben Rodrigues
66'
Alex Mowatt
70'
J. Swift← G. Diangana
70'
J. Wallace← T. Fellows
74'
M. Ebiowei← S. Dembélé
75'
Louie Sibley
83'
J. Molumby← U. Račić
83'
M. Johnston← J. Maja
84'
O. Dale← I. El Mizouni
90+4'
Malcolm Ebiowei
90+2'
D. Scarlett↳ E. Moore

Possession

51%Oxford

Shots

12Oxford

Pass accuracy

50%Oxford

Statistics

OxfordWest
Overview
51%Possession49%
12Total Shots14
0.87Expected Goals (xG)0.73
5Corners8
16Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots14
3On Target3
4Off Target7
5Blocked4
6Inside Box6
6Outside Box8
Passing
51%Possession49%
487Total Passes467
397Accurate Passes381
82%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
0.25Goals Prevented0.25
Discipline
16Fouls10
3Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Oxford United vs West Brom

Oxford United and West Brom drew 1-1 in Championship on October 19, 2024.

Goals: K. Ahearne-Grant (29'), D. Scarlett (90+2').

Oxford United controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at The Kassam Stadium in Oxford, Oxfordshire.