Oxford United 0–3 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Stoke City

L. Baker 48', 10'

S. N'Zonzi 32'

11/4/2025

Championship · Round 14Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 40+ matches

Oxford United42%

×Draw27%

Stoke City31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.15

Oxford United

1.39

Stoke City

1.15

Oxford United creates 21% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 53 away

1.17

creates per match

1.08

1.22

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Oxford United

1.17

Stoke City

1.08

allows per match

Oxford United

1.22

Stoke City

1.61

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Oxford United+0.06on par

Stoke City-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

69%

Oxford United or Stoke City

73%

Draw or Stoke City

58%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

20%

Stoke City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

75%

Oxford United 2+ goals

40%

Oxford United 3+ goals

16%

Stoke City 1+ goals

68%

Stoke City 2+ goals

32%

Stoke City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

58%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.22 · 40 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.61 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.17 + Stoke City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.39

Stoke City attack 1.08 + Oxford United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Oxford United scores more

42%

level

27%

Stoke City scores more

31%

Oxford United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

L. Baker

Stoke City · M

8.6

Match Events

10'

32'

40'

48'

53'

53'

S. Dembele← P. Placheta

59'

Steven N'Zonzi

63'

B. Pearson← T. Seko

63'

J. Bae← L. Baker

73'

L. Cisse← M. Manhoef

73'

R. Bozenik← D. Mubama

74'

Ashley Phillips

76'

M. Harris← W. Lankshear

78'

T. Rigo← S. N'Zonzi

81'

O. ter Haar Romeny← S. Mills

81'

L. Sibley← G. Leigh

83'

Junior Tchamadeu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordStoke

Overview

48%Possession52%

16Total Shots14

1.78Expected Goals (xG)2.19

10Corners7

6Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots14

1On Target6

10Off Target5

5Blocked3

9Inside Box12

7Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

347Total Passes391

264Accurate Passes306

76%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

0.11Goals Prevented0.11

Discipline

6Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3