Oxford United 1–0 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stoke City

I. El Mizouni 48'

9/14/2024

Championship · Round 5The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 41+ matches

Oxford United43%

×Draw27%

Stoke City31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.14

Oxford United

1.39

Stoke City

1.14

Oxford United creates 22% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 54 away

1.18

creates per match

1.07

1.20

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Oxford United

1.18

Stoke City

1.07

allows per match

Oxford United

1.20

Stoke City

1.60

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Oxford United+0.04on par

Stoke City-0.26scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

69%

Oxford United or Stoke City

73%

Draw or Stoke City

57%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

20%

Stoke City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

75%

Oxford United 2+ goals

40%

Oxford United 3+ goals

16%

Stoke City 1+ goals

68%

Stoke City 2+ goals

32%

Stoke City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

58%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.20 · 41 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.60 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.18 + Stoke City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Stoke City attack 1.07 + Oxford United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Oxford United scores more

43%

level

27%

Stoke City scores more

31%

Oxford United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

V. Johansson

Stoke City · G

8.0

Match Events

33'

A. Moran← L. Gooch

45+3'

Ruben Rodrigues← C. Brannagan

48'

I. El Mizouni↳ Ruben Rodrigues

58'

L. Koumas← S. Sidibe

74'

J. Thompson← W. Burger

74'

E. Tezgel← Bae Jun-Ho

74'

N. Ennis← T. Cannon

75'

W. Vaulks← J. McEachran

79'

Junior Tchamadeu

82'

M. Ebiowei← S. Dembélé

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordStoke

Overview

56%Possession44%

14Total Shots9

1.27Expected Goals (xG)0.53

4Corners6

5Fouls6

Shots

14Total Shots9

8On Target1

2Off Target3

4Blocked5

9Inside Box5

5Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

450Total Passes345

365Accurate Passes257

81%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

0.02Goals Prevented0.02

Discipline

5Fouls6

0Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1