Oxford United 2–2 Millwall: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Millwall

P. Placheta 90'

C. Brannagan 45'

J. Cooper 66'

T. Ballo 11'

11/1/2025

Championship · Round 13Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Oxford United42%

×Draw26%

Millwall32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.23

Oxford United

1.45

Millwall

1.23

Oxford United creates 18% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 24 away

1.54

creates per match

1.48

0.99

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Oxford United

1.54

Millwall

1.48

allows per match

Oxford United

0.99

Millwall

1.35

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Oxford United-0.14scores less

Millwall-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

68%

Oxford United or Millwall

74%

Draw or Millwall

58%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

20%

Millwall wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

77%

Oxford United 2+ goals

42%

Oxford United 3+ goals

18%

Millwall 1+ goals

71%

Millwall 2+ goals

35%

Millwall 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

57%

Millwall (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.99 · 10 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.35 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.54 + Millwall defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.45

Millwall attack 1.48 + Oxford United defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Oxford United scores more

42%

level

26%

Millwall scores more

32%

Oxford United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

C. Brannagan

Oxford United · M

7.9

Match Events

11'

T. Ballo↳ R. Leonard

35'

C. Neghli← F. Azeez

45'

C. Brannagan↳ S. Mills

61'

B. Mitchell← D. Mazou-Sacko

61'

A. Emakhu← L. Cundle

62'

G. Leigh← J. Currie

66'

J. Cooper

73'

P. Placheta← W. Vaulks

73'

L. Harris← F. Krastev

73'

N. Prelec← W. Lankshear

82'

S. Dembele← S. Mills

90+4'

W. Harding← R. Leonard

90'

P. Placheta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordMillwall

Overview

49%Possession51%

14Total Shots11

0.63Expected Goals (xG)2.42

5Corners8

5Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots11

6On Target4

5Off Target5

3Blocked2

4Inside Box8

10Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

363Total Passes381

241Accurate Passes259

66%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

-0.61Goals Prevented-0.61

Discipline

5Fouls14

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4

Championship: Oxford United 2–2 Millwall

Oxford United and Millwall drew 2-2 in Championship on November 1, 2025.

Goals: T. Ballo (11'), C. Brannagan (45'), J. Cooper (66'), P. Placheta (90').

Millwall controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 14.

The match was played at Kassam Stadium in Oxford.

Oxford United vs Millwall — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Oxford United 2–2 Millwall