Oxford United 1–1 Millwall: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Millwall

T. Goodrham 85'

J. Tanganga 45'

11/30/2024

Championship · Round 18The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Oxford United40%

×Draw26%

Millwall34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.25

Oxford United

1.40

Millwall

1.25

Oxford United creates 12% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 25 away

1.46

creates per match

1.45

1.04

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Oxford United

1.46

Millwall

1.45

allows per match

Oxford United

1.04

Millwall

1.33

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Oxford United-0.04on par

Millwall-0.21scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

66%

Oxford United or Millwall

74%

Draw or Millwall

60%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

19%

Millwall wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

75%

Oxford United 2+ goals

41%

Oxford United 3+ goals

17%

Millwall 1+ goals

71%

Millwall 2+ goals

36%

Millwall 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

55%

Millwall (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 12 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.46 + Millwall defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

Millwall attack 1.45 + Oxford United defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oxford United scores more

40%

level

26%

Millwall scores more

34%

Oxford United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

T. Goodrham

Oxford United · F

7.9

Match Events

3'

Japhet Tanganga

45'

J. Tanganga↳ J. Bryan

46'

I. El Mizouni← W. Vaulks

46'

T. Bradshaw← J. Coburn

59'

Ryan Leonard

61'

M. Harris← D. Scarlett

61'

Ruben Rodrigues← P. Płacheta

64'

Joe Bryan

73'

O. Dale← M. Phillips

80'

M. Wallace← S. Hutchinson

84'

W. Goodwin← G. Leigh

85'

T. Goodrham↳ C. Brannagan

90+1'

George Saville

90+1'

M. Langstaff← O. Azeez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordMillwall

Overview

52%Possession48%

8Total Shots11

0.90Expected Goals (xG)0.88

2Corners11

10Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots11

3On Target3

2Off Target1

3Blocked7

4Inside Box10

4Outside Box1

Passing

52%Possession48%

351Total Passes319

245Accurate Passes214

70%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

-0.03Goals Prevented-0.03

Discipline

10Fouls14

0Yellow Cards4

1Offsides4