Oxford United 1–2 Luton: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Luton

R. Holmes 48'

D. Potts 90+8'

J. Collins 55'

10/2/2018

League One · Round 11Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Oxford United41%

×Draw25%

Luton33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.29

Oxford United

1.46

Luton

1.29

Oxford United creates 13% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 44 away

1.70

creates per match

1.45

1.13

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Oxford United

1.70

Luton

1.45

allows per match

Oxford United

1.13

Luton

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par

Luton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

67%

Oxford United or Luton

75%

Draw or Luton

59%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

20%

Luton wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

77%

Oxford United 2+ goals

43%

Oxford United 3+ goals

18%

Luton 1+ goals

72%

Luton 2+ goals

37%

Luton 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

55%

Luton (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Luton away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.70 + Luton defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.46

Luton attack 1.45 + Oxford United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oxford United scores more

41%

level

25%

Luton scores more

33%

Oxford United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

48'

55'

66'

70'

J. Justin← A. Shinnie

73'

73'

76'

76'

76'

77'

J. Ruffles← J. Hanson

78'

K. LuaLua← E. Lee

82'

Glen Rea

83'

S. Carruthers← J. Obika

87'

90'

90'

90+8'

Oxford

Luton

36

Shea

5

Bradley

3

⚽

Potts

6

Pearson

16

▼

Rea

11

▼

Shinnie

17

Ruddock

7

Stacey

19

⚽

Collins

10

▼

14

41

29

3

5

6

▼

4

8

26

12

⚽

Holmes

20

▼

Obika

16

▼

Whyte

Manager: K. Robinson

76'▲J. Mackie←▼G. Whyte

77'▲J. Ruffles←▼J. Hanson

83'▲S. Carruthers←▼J. Obika

Oxford United substitutes

19Mackie14Ruffles11Carruthers9Smith13Shearer15Mousinho17Henry

Manager: N. Jones

70'▲J. Justin←▼A. Shinnie

78'▲K. LuaLua←▼E. Lee

87'▲A. Sheehan←▼G. Rea

Luton substitutes

2Justin25LuaLua44Sheehan4McCormack18Grant27Jarvis40Isted

League One: Oxford United 1–2 Luton

Luton beat Oxford United 2-1 in League One on October 2, 2018.

Goals: R. Holmes (48'), J. Collins (55'), D. Potts (90+8').

The match was played at Kassam Stadium in Oxford.

Oxford United vs Luton — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League One: Oxford United 1–2 Luton