Luton 3–1 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Luton

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Oxford United

G. Moncur 73', 3'

E. Lee 53'

L. Garbutt 60'

5/4/2019

League One · Round 46Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Luton50%

×Draw24%

Oxford United26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.15

Luton

1.71

Oxford United

1.15

Luton creates 49% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 135 away

2.04

creates per match

1.36

0.93

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Luton

2.04

Oxford United

1.36

allows per match

Luton

0.93

Oxford United

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luton+0.00on par

Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Luton or draw

74%

Luton or Oxford United

76%

Draw or Oxford United

50%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

27%

Oxford United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

82%

Luton 2+ goals

51%

Luton 3+ goals

24%

Oxford United 1+ goals

68%

Oxford United 2+ goals

32%

Oxford United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

66%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.39 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 2.04 + Oxford United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.71

Oxford United attack 1.36 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Luton scores more

50%

level

24%

Oxford United scores more

26%

Luton at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

45'

53'

58'

59'

J. Sinclair← J. Mackie

60'

63'

70'

73'

77'

80'

82'

L. Berry← A. McCormack

83'

R. Hall← L. Garbutt

88'

A. Connolly← J. Collins

Luton

Oxford

1

Eastwood

3

⚽

▼

5

6

23

46

17

▼

14

8

10

19

▼

36

5

6

4

▼

McCormack

11

Shinnie

17

A

Ruddock

20

⚽2

Moncur

7

Stacey

2

Justin

19

▼

Collins

10

⚽

▼

Lee

Manager: M. Harford

70'▲H. Cornick←▼E. Lee

82'▲L. Berry←▼A. McCormack

88'▲A. Connolly←▼J. Collins

Luton substitutes

14Cornick8Berry18Connolly3Potts12Baptiste40Isted45Panter

Manager: K. Robinson

58'▲G. Whyte←▼J. Henry

59'▲J. Sinclair←▼J. Mackie

83'▲R. Hall←▼L. Garbutt

Oxford United substitutes

16Whyte9Sinclair7Hall15Mousinho21Napa24Sykes27Stevens