Oxford United vs Burton Albion

Oxford United

Preview

14:00

Burton Albion

9/12/2026

League One · Round 6Kassam Stadium

Big match

50%

Oxford United

model favours

50%25%25%

Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

52%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Oxford United50%

×Draw25%

Burton Albion25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchBurton Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.09

Oxford United

1.65

Burton Albion

1.09

Oxford United creates 51% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 176 away

1.70

creates per match

1.06

1.13

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Oxford United

1.70

Burton Albion

1.06

allows per match

Oxford United

1.13

Burton Albion

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Burton Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

75%

Oxford United or Burton Albion

75%

Draw or Burton Albion

50%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

27%

Burton Albion wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

81%

Oxford United 2+ goals

49%

Oxford United 3+ goals

23%

Burton Albion 1+ goals

66%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

30%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

67%

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 176 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.70 + Burton Albion defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.65

Burton Albion attack 1.06 + Oxford United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Oxford United scores more

50%

level

25%

Burton Albion scores more

25%

Oxford United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Oxford United have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
Burton Albion win just 24% of their away games
Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0
Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Oxford United

Balanced

Burton Albion

Direct / counter-attacking

50%Possession43%

74%Pass accuracy65%

12.0ShotsBiggest gap9.9

—xG1.29

Oxford UnitedBurton Albion

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

7

Oxford United

1

Draws

2

Burton Albion

Avg goals: 3.7BTTS: 50%

4–03–00–22–14–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

United

WLWLL

Albion

LLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff