Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oxford United vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Oxford United
Oxford United
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
12/16/2023League OneLeague One · Round 22The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Oxford United50%
×Draw24%
Burton Albion25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford United
1.65
Burton Albion
1.10

Oxford United creates 50% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 179 away

creates per match

Oxford United
1.69
Burton Albion
1.09

allows per match

Oxford United
1.10
Burton Albion
1.60

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par
Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw
75%
Oxford United or Burton Albion
76%
Draw or Burton Albion
50%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+
27%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals
81%
Oxford United 2+ goals
49%
Oxford United 3+ goals
23%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
67%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
30%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)
66%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.60 · 179 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.69 + Burton Albion defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.65

Burton Albion attack 1.09 + Oxford United defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Oxford United scores more
50%
level
24%
Burton Albion scores more
25%

Oxford United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Oxford United 3–0 Burton Albion

Oxford United beat Burton Albion 3-0 in League One on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at The Kassam Stadium in Oxford, Oxfordshire.