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Burton Albion vs Oxford United — League One 2018

Burton Albion
Burton Albion
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oxford United
Oxford United
1/28/2023League OneLeague One · Round 29Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Burton Albion37%
×Draw26%
Oxford United37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burton Albion
1.33
Oxford United
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 178 home / 136 away

creates per match

Burton Albion
1.28
Oxford United
1.37

allows per match

Burton Albion
1.31
Oxford United
1.37

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par
Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Oxford United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw
63%
Burton Albion or Oxford United
74%
Draw or Oxford United
63%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+
16%
Oxford United wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals
74%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
38%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
15%
Oxford United 1+ goals
74%
Oxford United 2+ goals
39%
Oxford United 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)
50%
Oxford United (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 178 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.37 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Oxford United defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Oxford United attack 1.37 + Burton Albion defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Burton Albion scores more
37%
level
26%
Oxford United scores more
37%

Burton Albion at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Burton Albion 2–0 Oxford United

Burton Albion beat Oxford United 2-0 in League One on January 28, 2023.

The match was played at Pirelli Stadium in Burton-upon-Trent, Staffordshire.