Oxford United 1–1 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bristol City

G. Leigh 59'

M. Sykes 65'

2/1/2025

Championship · Round 30The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Oxford United44%

×Draw27%

Bristol City29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.04

Oxford United

1.36

Bristol City

1.04

Oxford United creates 31% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 37 away

1.36

creates per match

1.05

1.02

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Oxford United

1.36

Bristol City

1.05

allows per match

Oxford United

1.02

Bristol City

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par

Bristol City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

71%

Oxford United or Bristol City

73%

Draw or Bristol City

56%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

21%

Bristol City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

74%

Oxford United 2+ goals

39%

Oxford United 3+ goals

16%

Bristol City 1+ goals

65%

Bristol City 2+ goals

28%

Bristol City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

61%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.02 · 14 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.36 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.36 + Bristol City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bristol City attack 1.05 + Oxford United defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oxford United scores more

44%

level

27%

Bristol City scores more

29%

Oxford United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

C. Brown

Oxford United · D

7.7

Match Events

4'

19'

30'

31'

46'

M. Bird← S. Twine

46'

S. Armstrong← N. Wells

59'

G. Leigh

64'

Michał Helik

65'

M. Sykes↳ M. Bird

73'

H. ter Avest← P. Kioso

73'

T. Goodrham← Ruben Rodrigues

79'

A. Matos← P. Płacheta

79'

O. Romeny← W. Vaulks

80'

M. McGuane← G. Earthy

81'

84'

86'

86'

89'

T. Bradshaw← M. Harris

90+4'

Max O'Leary

90+1'

G. Tanner← S. Armstrong

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordBristol

Overview

69%Possession31%

20Total Shots7

1.01Expected Goals (xG)0.58

5Corners3

9Fouls14

Shots

20Total Shots7

4On Target2

4Off Target2

12Blocked3

10Inside Box4

10Outside Box3

Passing

69%Possession31%

524Total Passes240

418Accurate Passes145

80%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

-0.59Goals Prevented-0.59

Discipline

9Fouls14

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards2

2Offsides0